How To Win at Sports Betting and Z Code.
The statement I am about to make will most definitely shock any sports bettor who reads it. While most people are under the impression that everyone wagering sports wins long term, so long as they bet frequently enough, this is not really accurate. Wait you’re not surprised? Of course you are not! Everyone understands the bookmaker has an advantage more times than not sports. Nonetheless, what if there was a means the rolls could be reversed; what if the sports bettor always had the advantage? How To Win at Sports Betting and Z Code
This is actually potential. Have you ever heard the term edge player? This is a label gaming companies assign to players who just bet when the odds are in their favor. While “on average” bookmakers have a 4.55% edge on straight bets (2.38% @ -105), the key word is “average”; advantage players find wagers where the bookmaker’s advantage is negative. Whether you are goal will be to be a sports betting expert, or simply get a little money on the side, step one to winning is to stop making -EV bets.
If you comprehend what expected value, – EV, and EV mean, proceed and jump down to our guidance on finding EV stakes. If you are not familiar with this theory continue reading.
Expected Value (EV) Clarified
Expected value is a term on a regular basis is used by professional gamblers. To explain what it means in simple terms I’ll use an example. Let us say me and you decided to have a coin flipping contest. We flip coins and you give me $1 for each outcome of heads; I give you $1 for each result of tails. We could flip coins for all perpetuity and neither of us will have an advantage because on average half the time we lose $1 half the time we win $1. As long as we flip the coin enough times we break even, while there’ll be swings back and forth. This special bet has expected value that is neutral.
Now let us say I am tired of flipping coins, and want to quit, but while begging me to stay you offer me a better deal. This new deal pays me $1.10 for every heads, and I still pay you $1.00 for every tails. If we flip 100 times I should average 50 wins of $1.10 ($55) and 50 losses of $1 ($50). Every flip of the coin I’ve a favorable expectation ( EV) of 5 cents. As the one offering me this proposition you have the reverse, every flip of the coin is 5 cents -EV for you.
Every wager made in sports betting has either a positive expected value (EV), negative expectation value (-EV) or in rare cases expected value that is unbiased. Winning sports betting requires avoiding – EV and finding EV stakes.
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